Friday, November 18, 2011

Rabin's Prognostics of The End of the End: The 2011 USCL Championship

As Mr.E predicted last Sunday, we shall see a NY-Chicago final! Surprisingly, Chicago did not bring out there monster GGGg 2500+ lineup. Furthermore, NY faced difficult missing almost 1/2 of their roster (Fedorowicz, Bodek, Williams and Gershenov) thanks to the World Youth and K-12 Nationals.  Thanks to Chicago however, JFern who technically isn't eligible to play, was agreed to be able to play..... Without further ado, lets answer the golden question: "Who shall the 2011 USCL Champions be?

Board 1: GM Mesgen Amanov vs GM Giorgi Kacheishvili:

Amanov has had a solid season all season long and has the white pieces. However, last week he faced a minor setback when he lost with the white pieces to Conrad Holt, showing he is isn't entirely invincible with white. Kacheishvili had been playing well too until he suffered two consecutive losses in the last week. However, with a nice rating edge and a dynamic style with the black pieces, I sense a victory for Kacheishvili in either a complicated Nimzo Indian.

Board 2: IM Irina Krush vs GM Dimitry Gurevich

Both  players have had high performance ratings this season and had a 66% score, despite the fact  Krush played 3 games, when Gurevich played 6. While Krush, has a miniscule rating edge, Gurevich's GM title definitely counts for something. I see Gurevich equalizing relatively easy and the game eventually ending in a peaceful draw.

Board 3: IM Angelo Young vs Matthew Herman

This game is a close call as a well established IM who has had a consistent season with a fantastic 5/6 score and 2624 performance rating faces a topsy-turvy player Herman who divides his time working hard at a hedgefund (http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/09/29/good-at-chess-a-hedge-fund-may-want-to-hire-you/), swindling 2300s to help qualify NY for the finals (http://www.uschessleague.com/games/hermanmartirosov11p.htm) and tagging GMs left and right (http://main.uschess.org/content/view/11076/626/) . While it depends what mode Herman is up to, Ill give Young the nod here to pull out a win, as he has the white pieces and will likely obtain a small edge and try to grind Herman down.

Board 4: John Fernandez vs Gopal Menon

NY's chances on this board largely depends on if Fernandez is in shape. With the exception of the Bermuda International this past February, he hasn't played a tournament since 2006, when he unfortunately beat your loyal blogger in a long theoretical battle at Steve Immit's somewhat ridiculous Insanity at NYs home-site the great Marshall Chess Club. For those crazy chess maniacs around the the NY area, this another one of those all-night chess fests coming up as we await 2012! Anyways back on track, I unfortunately have to predict Menon to win with a rating edge and more recent tournament experience.

Thus, to be objective, I unfortunately have to predict Chicago to win 2.5-1.5 and win the 2011 Championship. Come on Knights, please prove my prediction wrong!

1 comment:

  1. First of all, many thanks for your blogging all season long.
    2nd, New York was missing half their roster as Pascal is also at the K-12
    3rd, Chicago was missing many players as well including Yury, Sam and Eric.
    4th, a technical error but Mesgen didn't play last week. He lost to Holt two weeks ago.

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